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"I'll be positioned in this office by 2027," Sir Keir Starmer remarked, noting that if our conversation proceeded smoothly, he might invite the interviewer into his official residence for a follow-up conversation in 2026.

There is never any break for those in the top job. Just an hour before we sat down, Starmer had been on the phone with Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelensky and working to decipher what on earth had happened in Venezuela, where his close ally, US President Donald Trump, had recently targeted and seized its leader, Nicolás Maduro.

By the time our interview, which was much longer than usual, had ended, Maduro had been indicted in New York.

A Refresh for the New Year

As the year commences, Sir Keir seems to have had a kind of a refresh. Maybe even just some downtime with the family at Chequers, the prime minister's official country residence.

This seemed to have put him in better spirits than at the saggy tail end of 2025, a dreadful political year for him.

But are he and his supporters being unrealistic if they believe his political fate are poised to improve?

Leadership Questions

The uncomfortable reality for the prime minister is that a significant number of his colleagues are convinced he's not very good at his job. A faction of them would rather take a risk and oust him in 2026.

But Starmer was rejecting the idea during our conversation on Saturday morning.

On several occasions he insisted he'd be "evaluated at the next election", insisting no one would remove his electoral mandate from him – despite the fact that the most effective strategy of halting Nigel Farage and Reform UK getting to No 10 might be for Labour to switch leader.

"We are in the struggle of our generation and I aim to lead us," he said.

The Spring Test

The issue for the PM is that he will be scrutinised far sooner than then – in a huge set of elections in May across the UK. He sought to contend, perhaps excessively, that they are concerning who runs councils, and who runs the devolved administrations in Holyrood or Cardiff – and not a verdict on Westminster.

True – in part. But even though he may be reluctant to acknowledge it, No 10 will be evaluated by those elections too.

Despite this, Sir Keir suggesting that there were no situation under which he would step down, even if one of his MPs challenged him for the job, should those elections be very poor for Labour.

Predicting a Turnaround

He attempted to explain his unpopularity by saying the electorate was naturally eager for things to get better. He tried to convince the interviewer, and the public, that this year would be different.

The economy would improve in the face of rising unemployment, he said, when policies the administration enacted during their first choppy year began to show results.

• He committed to empty asylum hotels before the current target date of 2029, but he did not set a new date on that.
• He said too, with the proviso that it wasn't a done deal, that a peace deal in Ukraine felt a greater possibility now than at any time since Russia's full-scale invasion.
• He revealed for the first occasion that Western allies were now talking about how to combine US and European forces to offer security for Ukraine – to protect a possible peace.

His big argument is that soon the country will "turn the corner".

Familiar Arguments

The prime minister may have communicated with more energy than I've seen from him for a some time – calmer, perhaps, with more time to talk.

But despite facing pressure from various quarters for a more decisive approach, with increased political clarity, more vigour, more pace and more immediacy, his points were repeated ones.

Given that he is in such significant political peril, should he consider a new narrative?

No government, and especially not one that has been unpopular for many months, has everything its as planned.

Sir Keir's problems are not just because government is hard, but because he and his colleagues have made mistakes, including in the recent past.

Regrets and Risks

The PM told me that he regretted saying he was "pleased" to welcome back the Egyptian-British activist Alaa Abd El Fattah to the UK after an backlash when past remarks he'd made in the past – including calls for Zionists and police to be killed – came to light.

Sir Keir attributed it to "procedures" for not realising what the activist had said before – a fancier way of saying it wasn't his responsibility.

And he is inviting evident political dangers as the year unfolds. His friendship with the US president acquires a new jeopardy after Trump's military action on Venezuela.

Having interviewed Sir Keir Starmer, a former human rights lawyer who was against the war in Iraq, over many years, the idea he would be comfortable with such action seems unlikely.

International Law and Brexit

He told me he was a "career-long champion of international law" but the public "simply haven't got the full picture at the moment".

Opponents called for him to condemn it before the interview. And the government is likely to face more pressure to give an clear view in Parliament in the coming days.

There has also always been bubbling tension in the Labour party to undo or remake some of the outcomes of Brexit.

The PM denies he's heading in that direction, but his new firmer plan to integrate further with the European trading bloc – the huge economic European market – will probably trigger protests that he is breaking his pledge never to try to reverse the results that flowed from Brexit.

A move to align with more of the single market will delight many on his side of the party, but it is prime ammunition for Reform and the Conservatives to