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Mounting concerns exist about the possibility of warfare involving East African neighbors, Ethiopia and Eritrea, as confrontational language has escalated in the past few weeks.

What Did Ethiopian Officials Stated?

Landlocked Ethiopia's requests for passage to the Red Sea through Eritrea has sparked a intense verbal exchange.

The Ethiopian leader previously announced in 2023 that his country's access to the sea was an crucial concern, comments that Eritrean authorities ignored.

Diplomatic connections between the neighboring nations have often been tense. Following a long-standing battle for independence, Eritrea, which has a 1,350km (840-mile) Red Sea coastline, legally broke away from Ethiopia in 1993, leaving it cut off from the sea.

Subsequently, a border war started in which more than 100,000 people lost their lives.

Current Statements from Ethiopian Officials

Abiy and military leader General Birhanu Jula have publicly asserted sovereignty of Eritrean coastal city of the port of Assab – some 60 km from the border - and implied the desire to take it by force.

In early September, the Prime Minister said the country's "mistake" of being denied passage to the sea as a result of Eritrea's separation would be "corrected soon".

Ethiopia's ambassador to neighboring Kenya, retired Gen Bacha Debele, said that Assab was "Ethiopia's wealth" and would be returned "by force".

Eritrea's Response to the Claims

In the face of persistent challenges from Ethiopian officials, Eritrea's response has been restricted to short statements on online platforms from Communications Head Yemane Gebremeskel.

He has rejected Ethiopia's demand for access to the Red Sea calling it "hazardous" and a "harmful plan" of "irredentism" – a policy of claiming back former lands.

Eritrean authorities warned on recently that efforts to legitimise "obvious provocation" would have significant repercussions for Ethiopia and its neighbouring countries and is a "redline that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Security Preparations on the Ground

So far, there are no reports of large-scale army activities in the frontier regions between the neighboring states.

Nonetheless, in the country, state television has broadcast graduation ceremonies of numerous trainees at multiple army bases.

The director of human resources department of the defense force, Lt Gen Hachalu Sheleme, recently said in an conversation that the army was in a "secure situation" as "many thousands of recruits" were joining it, which he said was "a signal to our adversaries".

Past Origins of the Tension

For over fifty years from 1890, the territory was ruled by colonial powers.

Following Italy's defeat, it was then controlled by the British military before evolving into a associated territory of the Ethiopian empire.

But in 1962 Emperor Haile Selassie I cancelled this arrangement and Eritrea became fully incorporated into Ethiopia.

A thirty-year armed struggle occurred, concluding with the government's loss in the early 1990s. Autonomy was then endorsed by the population in a vote in 1993.

Temporarily in the 1990s, there were good relations between the authorities in Addis Ababa and Asmara, but they clashed over the exact location of their common border, causing war in 1998.

Even though this ended in a peace deal in 2000, it was partially applied, and the both countries continued at in dispute.

This ended in 2018, when Abiy made approaches to Eritrea's leader the president. The both leaders endorsed a announcement that the conflict was over – a move that earned Abiy the Nobel Peace Prize.

The two governments were then cooperators in Ethiopia's recent armed struggle in the northern region.

Yet ties have later worsened anew.